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Leading role for Poland after Brexit: Wawrzyk

PR dla Zagranicy
Alicja Baczyńska 29.06.2016 11:32
After Britain leaves the EU, Poland will be the largest member state to represent a “sound” course for the bloc to follow and it is Poland that will take on a leading role in the Euro-realists’ camp, says Piotr Wawrzyk, from the Institute of European Studies at the University of Warsaw.
Photo: Flickr.com/European Parliament

Wawrzyk commented on the French and German foreign ministers’ recent plan for tighter integration within the bloc, following Britain’s historic vote to leave the EU.

“Perhaps [Berlin and Paris] were even looking to a Brexit,” Wawrzyk told Polish Radio journalist Halina Ostas.

“Poland has the opportunity to set the tone for European policies, alongside France and Germany,” he added.

An extended excerpt from the interview:

Radio Poland: Some international observers say that following a Brexit, Germany could make moves to strengthen its ties with Russia. Do you agree with this assessment?

Piotr Wawrzyk: This all depends on who is holding the reins in the German government, because [Chancellor] Angela Merkel is the only person in the Federal Republic who is in favour of upholding trade sanctions with Russia. And I think that not even a Brexit would change this position, since it is a matter of principle. In other words, either Vladimir Putin keeps his word on what he announced he would do in terms of, for example, France, and in turn expect a lifting of sanctions. But if he does not do this, it would in turn result in the deterioration of the authority and position of Chancellor Merkel, among others.

In spite of the fact that the relationship between Angela Merkel and Vladimir Putin is cool at the moment, some commentators say that in the long term, a strengthening of ties between the two countries could take place. This is in line with the wishes of German industrialists, for whom Russia is a large market and could also provide the German market with raw materials.

Certainly German businesses are in favour of loosening sanctions, or of dropping them altogether. The same goes for the Social Democrats, as well as a part of the [Christian Democratic party]. Therefore, as I was saying, for as long as Angela Merkel is around, for as long as she is strong, these sanctions will be upheld. They have a strong position to resist the request by the business sphere, as well as their party colleagues and coalition partners.

If a new chancellor is selected ahead of next year’s elections, this could result in a problem […] in loosening these sanctions. But for as long and Angela Merkel is chancellor, as a guarantor of the Minsk agreement, she cannot afford to disregard its objectives in the face of Vladimir Putin. This, one could say, a matter of honour for her, because she was among those who convinced Putin to sign those documents, so she cannot now simply take a step back because she would be weakening her position in Germany.

How do you interpret the Franco-German proposal which some say is a step in creating a so-called “superstate”. Is this an acceptable proposal for countries such as Poland?

This is neither acceptable for Poland, but in my opinion, nor is it acceptable for French society. We must remember that the constitutional treaty was rejected by France in a referendum [in 2005], and this never was approved. And the [EU] constitution treaty was a looser partnership proposal than what was proposed by France and Germany. Apart from that when the French went to the ballot in that referendum, there weren’t as many high-profile euro sceptical voices in French society as there are now. Therefore these proposals will certainly not be met with enthusiasm by the French society if it were to go to a referendum. Let us remember that a leading voice in France is [Marine Le Pen’s] National Front party. It has a real chance of taking office in next year’s elections, and moves such as this treaty will be slammed by eurosceptics, because it shows that European leaders have locked themselves in an ivory tower and they are disengaged from voices of the people. Societies do not want further integration. Proposing something like this is swimming against the current of society’s will, and I am very surprised that European politicians agreed to such a draft, but this shows that to them it is immaterial what society wants, but rather they care about what they want. They expect societies to bend to what they want and not the opposite. This is proof that we have very inadequate European politicians.

The Brexit vote showed that European societies don’t want to give in to European technocrats.

Exactly. And this proposal shows just that. […] In my opinion, before such a bill is proposed, there will be requests – and I think these will be very forceful – of referendums in other countries. Let’s remember that the Danish government is dependent on a euro sceptic party – which is also saying it wants to follow in the steps of the UK.

The euro sceptic party in Austria will likely win the next elections, since its candidate narrowly lost the presidential election. If we add the National Front in next year’s election in France, as well as a similar situation in Holland... it shows that in Western Europe there is a strong euro sceptic voice.

Polish Foreign Minister Witold Waszczykowski has said that European Council should have more rights and the European Commission have fewer. Do you think that these Polish proposals be welcomed on the European arena?

This is a proposal which is much more realistic for societies to accept – not only Poles, but also Western European countries. I think that Germany and Scandinavian countries would also widely accept such proposals, more than the Franco-German draft. These ideas which Poland is proposing mirror public opinion in the European Union.

tags: brexit
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